The democratic party has just won the midterm elections in the United States with a crushing majority. They won control of the House of Representatives and of the Senate. And recently, in Brazil, Lula won from Trump-goon Bolsonaro. Is the tide turning against against populism, and is this a hopeful development for the French elections?

I sincerely doubt it. While the American election outcome is certainly good news (one particularly piece of good news is that spending almost half a billion dollar still does not buy you an election), Donald Trump outdid most politicians in raw stupidity. Creating excessively bad policies and not understanding the fundamentals of economics will at some point get you in trouble. Then, when all the negative effects are reaching voters, crying out that you are on the ballot is merely inviting electoral disaster, and in spite of all the nervous gnashing of teeth before the election, it would have been unthinkable for the republicans to win this election in these conditions. Trump has handed the democrats the country on a gold platter. I hope - but am not entirely convinced - that they make the best of it.

But does this mean that Marine Le Pen has now lost a part of her appeal? Le Pen has taken her distance of Trump - she was never a Trump goon, and has recently criticized his war on Iran on the grounds that is an illegal war. She has carefully retreated from her position of support because Trump's policies - tariffs on wines for instance -¹ are hurting France. While Le Pen will still supports some his policies - especially those on Ukraine - she cannot be seen as a follower like Bolsonaro junior in Brazil. Besides, Trump has never been particularly popular in France. Only 21% of French respondents in an IFOP-poll in 2025 had a positive image of Trump. While everyone who has a "bonne opinion" of Donald Trump should raise eyebrows, withdrawing from her initial position of support in 2016 has likely cost Marine Le Pen nothing, and the republican loss will not have much effect on the French elections. Le Pen's foreign leader problem is not called Trump but Putin.

Notes

1. Yes, I use hyphens (also called the em-dash). I have always done that, it is not AI, it's just how I write. I'm not going to change that.

Mheer, 4 XI 2026.